The month kicked off with a Presidential election in South Korea. The result was a razor-thin victory for Yoon Suk-yeol, of the conservative People Power Party. This comes less than two years after the conservatives suffered a resounding defeat at the hands of the Democratic Party in the legislative elections. Much of that fiasco had to do with public anger at the former conservative President Park Geun-hye, who had been impeached over allegations of corruption and abuse of power. At the time of the 2020 election, Park had already served three years of a 24-year prison term. But that didn’t stop voters from taking their anger out on the United Future Party, the successor to Park’s Saenuri Party, and predecessor to the People Power Party: they won only about a third of the seats. 

And yet, less than two years on, South Koreans seemed to have changed their minds. Yoon was actually the prosecutor responsible for putting Park behind bars. On the campaign trail, he promised that he would pardon Park on his first day in office.

Turkmenistan held a snap Presidential election on the 12th. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow stood down as president after 16 years of governing one of the most oppressed and undemocratic countries in the world. The new President is none other than his son, Serdar Berdimuhamedow. He “won” with 73% of the votes. There is no organized political opposition in Turkmenistan, all parties are supporters of the Berdimuhamedows, and outsiders believe they exist only to give the illusion of a multi-party system. 

South Australia held a state election on the 19th. The Labor Party defeated the incumbent Liberal government. That is probably a sign of things to come in the federal election, which will be held in May. 

Malta held a general election on the 26th. The result was a third consecutive victory for the Partit Laburista (Labour Party) over the Nationalist Party. Malta has a two-party system, which is unusual for a European country. In fact, voters deliberately rejected a smaller party that was set up prior to this election, the ADPD. The party was an alliance between the Democratic Alternative (DA) and the Democratic Party (PD), the latter of which is a former coalition partner of the Nationalists. It isn’t like voters don’t have a choice: the country uses the Single Transferable Vote (STV), which is a form of proportional representation. The Nationalist Party held on to its stronghold in the north, and even gained a seat in Valletta, while losing a seat in the south. 

Looking ahead at next month, parliamentary elections will be held in The Gambia (which likely will go President Barrow’s way), Slovenia, and Hungary (tight race). France will hold its presidential election. It is unlikely that a President will be elected in the first round, so we are probably looking at a rematch between Macron and Le Pen. Macron is likely to win a second term according to polls. 

February was a quiet month for elections.

Switzerland held its first-quarter referendums on the 13th. There were four questions asked of voters this time. A radical proposal to ban all scientific experiments with animal or human subjects was defeated by a huge margin, 79-20%. Not a single canton voted in favor of the measure. The Swiss National Science Foundation, swissuniversities, and the Swiss Academy of Medical Science argued that the proposal would “have extreme and damaging consequences for research, healthcare treatment, competitiveness, and innovation potential.” The second question was on limitations on tobacco advertising. The proposal would make it impossible for companies to advertise tobacco products (including e-cigarettes), where children or teens might see them. The proposal was approved 56.6-43% with the support of the Evangelical People’s Party and most left-wing parties. The final two proposals failed, on the abolition of the Issuance Tax on new equity capital, and extending the subsidy on the delivery of subscription newspapers.

Belarus held a constitutional referendum on the 27th. There were a number of changes proposed, mostly to further empower President Lukashenko, who has been in power since the fall of the Soviet Union. The proposals included a new Ombudsman Office, defining marriage as a “union of a man and a woman,” and empowering Belarus to develop a nuclear industry. Some proposals were designed to look as though they weakened the president, such as limiting him to two terms and banning him from issuing decrees with the force of law. These restrictions are likely nominal; Lukashenko has complete control over all aspects of the government. 

The referendum passed with 86.6% of votes. As with most elections in Belarus, the vote was likely a complete sham. No independent monitors were allowed to monitor the vote, and campaigning against the proposals was banned.

State elections were held throughout the month in India. Five states held elections: Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was expected to hold on to Uttar Pradesh and Manipur, and faced tough challenges in Uttarakhand and Goa against the opposition Indian National Congress. Punjab was a close race between the Congress and a newcomer: the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Results were announced on the 10th of March.

The BJP held on to Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, and Uttarakhand, and supprised pundits with a strong showing in Goa. The result was particularly exciting for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and is seen as a testament to his popularity. The result was utterly catastrophic for Congress. They failed to win a single state, and lost almost all of their ministers in Punjab. Most troubling for them is Uttar Pradesh, where they won only 2 seats out of 403, after making a huge effort to win. Many commentators are now suggesting that the Congress’ role as the main opposition to the BJP is now under threat. The party has failed to effectively counter the BJP’s more direct attacks, and have failed to capitalize on public anger against the government’s more controversial policies. 

 I missed the December 2021 entry for this series, partially because there were no major developments that I wanted to comment on, and partially because I didn’t have time. But here is a rundown of the elections in January of 2022.

Serbia held a constitutional referendum on the 16th. The proposal was to modify the judiciary, as Serbia aspires to join the European Union. The changes modernized the system of choosing judges, making the judiciary independent from the National Assembly and Executive. The result of the referendum was a resounding victory for the “Yes” option, 60-39%. There have been claims of voter fraud by non-governmental organizations. 

The referendum in Serbia is particularly odd, because not only is it outside the typical authoritarian playbook, it is in direct contradiction to it. Serbia is ruled by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which has a supermajority in parliament. President Aleksandar Vučić, who is also President of the SNS, is considered authoritarian and illiberal. Yet these proposals came straight out of SNS headquarters. Why would a regime, which has survived because it has control of the country’s judicial system, voluntarily give up that control? Is joining the European Union really so important to them?

Barbados held its election on 19 January. For the second election in a row, the Barbados Labour Party, led by Mia Mottley, has won all 30 seats in the House of Assembly. This election is the first since Barbados severed its ties to the Crown of Great Britain; last year they became an independent republic. 

The Portuguese held an election on the 30th. The result was a complete surprise, and a rare example of polling being completely inaccurate as to even the general result of the election. The snap election was called after the ruling Socialist Party lost a budget vote. They were expected to lose votes, but in fact, they have been returned with a majority government. The opposition Social Democratic Party was expected to gain significantly. Although they achieved a swing of 1.5% in the popular vote, they lost seats. The Left Bloc and Portugese Communist Party, the two parties that caused the downfall of the budget, both suffered massive losses.

Costa Rica is the only country with an election scheduled for February. Belarus is scheduled to hold a constitutional referendum, which will likely be just as much of a sham as the previous votes in the country.

One of the reasons why I have not been posting so much is that I have been working very hard on a project called The New Electoral College. 

It is a proposal to modify the Electoral College of the United States to allocate electors using party-list proportional representation. Over Thanksgiving break, the website went online. Go check it out!

newelectoralcollege.com

November 2021 has been a very interesting month for democracy.

The Falkland Islands held an election. The election is held in two constituencies, Stanley and Camp. Stanley consists of only the capital city, with about 4,000 voters, and Camp consists of the remainder of the territory, with only about 500 voters. Last year, a proposal was rejected in a referendum that would have combined the two constituencies into one. While a majority of voters voted for the proposal, it failed because it couldn’t get the required threshold of support in the Camp constituency. 

Elections were held in Nicaragua on the 7th. The elections were described as a “sham” by the United States and the European Union. It was the fourth straight victory for Daniel Ortega, the country’s authoritarian President. Ortega’s Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) won a supermajority in the National Assembly. Ortega has been accused of violent oppression of civil liberties.

Argentina held congressional elections on the 14th. The Peronists suffered massive setbacks, losing control of the senate for the first time in 40 years. The market reacted positively to the election result. The President, Alberto Fernández, is a Peronist and has indicated his willingness to engage in dialogue with opposition parties.

Hello everyone! 

It has been about a year since I posted last. I have been caught up in a lot of things, but I want to continue posting here, and intend to do so more frequently in the future. I am going to try to post something towards the end of each month, just recapping all the work I have done recently. Stay tuned for more!

Below is a chart of the demographics of the members of the United States Senate.

A wasted vote is one that, had it been cast for the other candidate, the result of the election would have been the same. This will explain how to calculate wasted vote under different voting systems. 

First-Past-the-Post

Sample election: 

Michelle: 5,000

George: 2,900

Edward: 2,100

These parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom elected an MP of the same party in all four General Elections using the current map (2010, 2015, 2017, 2019)

There are 267 constituencies that elected Conservative MPs all four times, 169 that only elected Labour MPs, 3 for the SNP and Plaid Cymru, 2 for the Liberal Democrats, and Caroline Lucas held on in Brighton Pavillion for the Greens all four times. In Northern Ireland, the DUP held 6 seats, and Sinn Féin 4.